Housing crisis bottomed out or not?

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05/19/2009
What do you residential dealers who play in the builder market think of the surveys and stats reported in the past couple of days? Yesterday, a National Association of Home Builders survey seemed to indicate that, yes, we'd reached, or almost reached, bottom. Government stats released today, however, seem to indicate that the bottom is not so close. These figures show April housing starts at a record low pace, which would indicate we've got a ways to go before hitting bottom. Here's that story And while I spent most of my academic life avoiding all things math, I know it's always a good idea to look at the methods and sample size in these studies. And whadya know? This story includes this reminder:
The government cautions that housing data are volatile and subject to large sampling and other statistical errors. In most months, the government can't be sure whether starts increased or decreased. Large revisions of reported figures are common.