I admire their optimism...
I've heard some people say they think the economy is going to rebound soon or is maybe rebounding right now, and I've heard some predictions for growth in the security industry, but I'm not sure what to think of the predictions proposed by Germany Trade & Invest. Here's their press release prior to ISC West:
LAS VEGAS, March 19, 2010/PRNewswire/ -- Sales in the German security technology market are expected to grow by more than 50 percent by 2015. From biometrics to IT security, German quality products and services are in high demand. Germany Trade & Invest will be presenting the latest opportunities in Germany's growing security technology industry at this year's International Security Conference & Expo (ISC West) in Las Vegas from March 23-26.Fifty percent! Well, I guess that is five years from now, so maybe that's not all that bullish. Let's get the details:
According to the German Ministry of Economics and Technology, revenue in this cross-cutting high-tech industry should surpass EUR 31 billion by 2015. This is a sharp increase over 2008 revenues of EUR 20 billion. 2009 figures are expected shortly.I'll say it's sharp, but now we're talking more like seven years, so not quite as sharp. Still, did overall revenues grow from 2008 to 2009? Maybe if they're making nothing but IP video, but most numbers I've seen say the industry as a whole was basically flat 2008 to 2009, and I haven't run into a ton of people talking big things for 2010. So, say it's $20 billion in 2009 and grows at 10 percent CAGR, that gives us $22 billion in 2010, $24.2 billion in 2011, $26.62 billion in 2012, $29.282 billion in 2013, well, okay, so they don't even have to grow at 10 percent CAGR to get to 50 percent by 2015. It's only like 7.58 percent CAGR to get from $20 billion to $31 billion in six years. Realistic? I guess so. But for some reason seven percent annual growth seems more palatable than 50 percent growth by 2015. Shows you how numbers can be deceptive. I like the typo in the following quite a bit, by the way:
Across the security technology industry, high-quality, reliable products and services are critical. Products bearing the "Made in Germany" label are synonymous with these high quality attributes. German companies are expecting revenues of up to EUR 21 billion by 2015. At the same time, companies based abroad can also tap into these opportunities, as one-third of sales in Germany are generated by companies based outside the country. With the largest security technology market in Europe, Germany is an attractive home for security companies. A large customer base, generous research and development funding, and well developed high-tech industries make Germany a prime business location.$21 billion? I thought it was $31 billion?!?