Resilient growth

Despite ongoing challenges like tariffs and shifting global dynamics, the security industry is showing remarkable resilience and optimism.

According to the July–August 2025 SIA Security Market Index (SMI) released by the Security Industry Association (SIA), business confidence has reached its highest point of the year, matching the previous peak recorded in January–February.

The latest survey reveals that 28% of respondents rated current conditions as “excellent,” and 53% said conditions are “good,” which, according to my math, brings the total positive sentiment to 81%, a strong indicator of industry-wide confidence.

So, what’s driving the optimism? Respondents shared insights that highlight the momentum. One access control/identity management provider said, “We are experiencing double-digit growth.” One integrator remarked, “Record sales months in Q2.” A physical security products manufacturer noted, “Quoting activity and order intake is very healthy.”

These comments reflect a thriving market, but while the overall outlook is positive, some companies are feeling the pressure from U.S. tariffs on imports from countries in North America and overseas.

One manufacturer noted, “Tariff rates are having a major impact on our ability to offer a product at affordable prices.” An audio/voice communication firm reported meeting revenue targets but falling short on profits due to tariff costs.

Interestingly, a Canadian AI software company observed slower business in the U.S. but rapid growth internationally, suggesting that global diversification may be a key strategy moving forward.

The SMI measures security industry executives’ current status and future expectations through a select survey of SIA members. The index’s goal is to provide a macro-view of confidence levels in the security industry every two months while closely examining six specific business measures:

• Number of employees or hours worked
• Marketing spending
• Product production or service output
• Capital equipment spending
• R&D spending
• Product or service sales

The survey includes a broad cross-section of the industry, with integrators, access control/identity management companies, and video surveillance businesses making up 40% of participants.

For July-August, the SMI rose two points to 53, just below the 12-month rolling average of 55. Since any score above 50 signals growth, this uptick reinforces the industry's forward momentum.

The SMI also revealed that most security leaders are expecting good conditions to get even better.

When asked how they expect conditions to be at their company in the next three months compared to today, 23% said “much better” and 48 percent said “a little better.” Twenty-three percent said “about the same,” while 6 percent expect things to get “a little worse.” In May-June, a combined 68 percent expected “much better” or “a little better” conditions.

Regarding three-month forecasts for specific parts of their business, 73% expect to see increases in product or service sales - the same result as two months ago – while 65% expect to increase the number of employees or hours worked, up from 56 percent in May-June.

In addition, 45% expect to increase marketing spending, up from 42%; 40% expect to increase capital equipment spending, up from 32%; and 38% expect to increase spending on research and development, down from 45%.

One integrator said that its R&D spending is “all driven by AI, which promises both efficiencies and new revenue opportunities,” while another said, “Customer desire to test AI allows us to spend some more on R&D, ensuring what we sell can perform as expected.”

As Scott Dunn, chair of the SIA Board of Directors put it, “SIA is proud to see the ongoing resilience of the security industry. Even with the significant challenges that tariffs are presenting, manufacturers, integrators and others continue to thrive through innovation and a commitment to supporting security and life safety throughout our communities.”

The SMI data paints a clear picture: the security industry is not just surviving; it's evolving and growing stronger.